Farmers across the Prairies are no strangers to the industry's challenges, and 2025 presents a particularly turbulent landscape. Producers face a complex set of hurdles, including fluctuating trade relations, rising input costs, encroaching urban expansion, shifting government policies, and the unpredictable impacts of climate fluctuations. Proactive planning and collaboration remain key to ensuring the continued growth and survival of Canada’s agricultural sector.
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MARKET UNCERTAINTIES
Market uncertainty is a significant concern for farmers, and as Hornby points out, “Uncertainty and markets never go together well in the same sentence.”
The looming threat of U.S. tariffs is a key driver of anxiety in the agricultural community. Farmers are deeply concerned about what the future holds in terms of trade relationships.
“Despite these threats, commodity prices have been somewhat stable at the beginning of 2025, but we really need to see the government expanding market access agreements with other countries,” Hornby explains.
“Canada has become overly reliant on the U.S. for exports, and nearly half of Manitoba's agri-food exports go to the U.S. If tariffs become a reality, this is a deep concern.”
Hornby’s advice for managing market uncertainty
Value-added options: Farmers should consider exploring value-added products when selling their commodities. This could provide greater control over pricing and market access;
Engage with buyers: It’s important to have conversations with buyers to understand better how potential tariffs might affect their operations and relationships;
Consult market analysts: Farmers should seek advice from market analysts to stay updated on trends and prepare for any shifts in the market that could influence future decisions;
Delay major investments: In light of market uncertainty, it may be prudent to delay major capital expenditures, such as land expansion or technology, until the outlook becomes clearer.
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RISING INPUT COSTS
The rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizer, seed, machinery, and crop protection products are another major threat to farm profitability. Hornby emphasizes the strain that higher input costs place on farmers, particularly since many producers cannot pass these increases on to consumers.
“We have heard from our members regarding upward input costs, which ultimately affect how profitable a farm operation will be,” he says. “Farmers are price takers, not price makers.”
Hornby’s advice for managing rising input costs
Strategic decision-making: Farmers need to carefully evaluate all aspects of their operations, such as seeding dates, harvest timing, and equipment purchases, as these decisions will directly impact profitability;
Evaluate equipment purchases: When it comes to machinery, the decision between buying new or used equipment should be made based on the specific needs of the operation;
Work with agronomists: Collaborating with agronomists can help farmers optimize their use of inputs. Regular soil testing, for instance, may help reduce fertilizer and pesticide costs by ensuring products are only applied when necessary.
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INCREASING PRESSURE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND
Farmers face increasing pressure on prime agricultural land as urban areas expand to accommodate population growth. Hornby acknowledges the need for housing but warns that converting farmland for development could threaten future food production.
“As we see more and more population growth in urban centres, there is also a definite urban sprawl happening with suburban developments,” Hornby points out.
He says it's necessary to protect farmland and not lose what we have, but also provide options for more workers in agriculture as well.
“Housing is needed to support population growth, especially as we face labour shortages. Getting housing in rural communities is important for rural economic development and to ensure there is somewhere for people working on farms to live.”
Hornby’s advice for managing land pressure
Engage in local planning: Farmers should actively participate in public development meetings and ensure their perspectives are considered when farmland is at risk of being taken out of production;
Collaborate with farm groups: Farmers can benefit from working with organizations like KAP, which are dedicated to protecting farmland and advocating for policies that prevent agricultural land from being developed for non-agricultural purposes;
Strengthen local networks: It’s important for farmers to connect with neighbours and fellow producers to strengthen their collective voice when opposing development projects that may impact farming operations.
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POLICIES AND REGULATIONS
Government policies can significantly impact farm operations, especially as election cycles bring changes to the political landscape. Hornby highlights the challenges farmers face when policies increase their production costs without providing a means to offset those expenses.
“Policies directly affect how much a farmer earns when things are implemented that cost them more to produce agricultural products,” Hornby says.
He specifically points to carbon pricing, where farmers who dry grain or heat livestock buildings are burdened with significant carbon tax expenses.
“The carbon tax goes through the roof in cold or wet years, adding tens of thousands of dollars in extra costs,” Hornby explains.
“Farmers need to be engaged with government policies and provide their views to government. The best way to do this is through farm groups, which advocate for policy changes on behalf of producers.”
Hornby’s advice for managing government policies
Engage in policy discussions: Farmers need to stay informed and engage in discussions about government policies, particularly those that may directly impact their operations, such as carbon taxes or new regulations;
Farm & Food Care Resource Library photo
Leverage farm groups: Participating in farm groups like KAP will help amplify their voices in policy discussions and ensure that their concerns are taken seriously by policymakers;
Advocate for change: Providing feedback to government representatives and supporting farm groups in advocating for regulatory adjustments can help shape policies that better reflect the needs of farmers.
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UNPREDICTABLE WEATHER
Weather remains one of the most unpredictable challenges for farmers. Whether it’s hail, excess moisture, droughts, or temperature extremes, adverse weather events can devastate crop production and increase the cost of operations, Hornby points out.
“Some big threats include hail which can destroy crops, excess moisture that can drop yields, and droughts that will decimate overall crop production and dry out pastures/hay production for livestock,” Hornby says.
Hornby’s advice for managing weather risks
Business risk management programs: Farmers should utilize business risk management programs to help mitigate weather-related risks. These programs are designed to provide financial support during challenging times;
Use business management programs to mitigate weather-related risks. -Enjoy Today Photography photo
Advocate for program improvements: Hornby encourages farmers to work together through organizations like KAP to advocate for improvements to these programs, ensuring they remain effective for today’s farm operations;
Push for research: Producers should support increased research funding to develop crop varieties that are resistant to excess moisture, flooding, and other extreme weather conditions.
Overall, Hornby stresses the importance of staying informed, being proactive, and collaborating with fellow producers.
“Whether navigating market shifts, rising costs, or the changing political and environmental landscape, farmers must continue to adapt and advocate for their livelihoods and the future of Canadian agriculture.” BF