The Tories cement their hold on rural Canada
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
And this was true also in Ontario, even though the election of a majority Conservative government spells the end of any hopes for federal funding of the province's Risk Management Program
by BARRY WILSON
Any chance that Ontario farmers will receive federal funding for their Risk Management Program, at least for four years, died in the late hours of May 2 as the Conservatives rolled to an impressive majority government.
Rural Ontario helped write the script for the Risk Management Program rejection by continuing its massive support for Conservatives, despite the fact that they were the only candidates to flatly reject federal funding for provincial business risk management programs.
The Ontario Federation of Agriculture had urged farmers to vote for candidates that supported them, a theme interpreted by many Conservative candidates as a form of anybody-but-Conservative plea. The results of May 2 suggest many farm voters did not heed the call.
In Parliament, opposition critics may press the government to support provincial risk management programs but, if the Conservatives were not to be persuaded while in minority, the chances of a conversion while in majority are non-existent.
On that file, Ontario farm lobbyists might as well move on, shoring up provincial support as provincial politicians head to their own election.
In the broader election picture, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's success at securing the first majority government in more than a decade is attributed largely to the party's ability to win Ontario urban and suburban seats, particularly in the Toronto area. That success came at the expense of the Liberal Party, which has been reduced to a shell with less than 20 per cent of the popular vote and fewer than 40 seats for the first time in history.
But that mainstream analysis really misses the point that the foundation of the Conservative majority is its rural base. Across the country, Ontario included, rural voters have been sending close to 90 Conservative MPs to Ottawa in recent elections, usually by large majorities. It is that secure base that allows Conservative tacticians to concentrate their growth efforts on urban and ethnic voters.
Across the Prairies, the Conservative hold on rural voters is an old story, preceded by the Reform Party and the Progressive Conservatives before them and really stretching back to John Diefenbaker's 1958 sweep.
In Ontario, the current incarnation of Conservative loyalty is a more recent development. Through the 1990s, Jean Chrétien's string of three consecutive majorities was based on an Ontario sweep including virtually all rural ridings. Since 2004, that rural Liberal base has been constantly eroded until it now is all but a given for the Conservatives.
The Haldimand-Norfolk riding southwest of Hamilton is a prime example of the trend. In 1988, Liberal Bob Speller stole it narrowly from the Progressive Conservatives and held it for the next four elections and 16 years. His political career culminated in 2003 when Speller became Canada's 29th federal agriculture minister in the Paul Martin government. Seven months later, he was defeated by Conservative Diane Finley.
Speller tried to reclaim the riding in 2006 and failed. In 2011, he tried again, convinced that rural Ontario was ready to rise up against the Harper government. On May 2, Speller failed once more, this time in large part because of a surge in NDP support that split the opposition vote.
It was the story across the province so, like the Prairies – at least for now – Conservative planners can take rural Ontario for granted. The next four years of majority government will show if that loyalty will be rewarded with rural results. BF
Barry Wilson is a member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery specializing in agriculture.