Behind the Lines - October 2015

Sunday, October 4, 2015

There is only one purely rural riding in the province of Ontario where voters will be choosing a Member of Parliament in the federal election this month. In fact, according to Statistics Canada, there are only three purely rural ridings among 338 electoral districts in all of Canada. This came to light as writer Barry Wilson, a lifetime member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, hit the road and took Better Farming into an examination of the state of agriculture and attitudes during the current federal election.

Along the way, he unearthed facts about Ontario's changing demographic makeup. Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, Ontario's population grew to 12.85 from 11.41 million. The Chief Electoral Officer of Canada determined that there should be 338 electoral districts represented in the House of Commons, with 121 allocated to Ontario, 15 more than before.

Following hearings in 2012, the Report of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for the Province of Ontario called for electoral districts to be carved to achieve a "provincial quota" of more or less 106,213 persons per district, with variance allowing for "community of interest, community of identity, historical patterns and a manageable geographic size" for electoral districts in sparsely populated rural areas and in the North. Of the 121 electoral districts in Ontario, 81 are deemed by Statistics Canada to be urban, 22 are "urban-rural," 17 are "rural-urban," and just one purely rural (one more than before). Communities with a population of 5,000 or more are deemed to be "urban."

Where, then, is that single "rural" riding in Ontario? It's Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, formerly "rural-urban" before a subdivision on the edge of Chatham-Kent was carved off to join another electoral district. It should be no surprise the incumbent, Bev Shipley, was chair of the House of Commons agriculture committee in the last Parliament.

Better Farming has developed a chart of Ontario's electoral districts for Wilson's story. Statistics Canada's information to make this chart came with a staff members' disclaimer: "I believe these values may need to be updated, or that I may not have the most current source."

So what does this all mean? In his regular The Hill column, Wilson writes that, in the next sitting Parliament, rural and agricultural Canada "will have its weakest parliamentary voice in Canadian history," adding that, "this is not a reflection on the quality or qualifications of the rural or rural-influenced MPs about to be elected. It is a reflection on their quantity." More than ever, before you go to the polls, you must hope that your "urban" neighbours, the people in the towns of 5,000 or more close to you, understand agriculture's position and share your values. The cover story starts on page 10. The Hill column is on page 41.

Must-reads this month include a column by Jeff Rubin, former CIBC World Markets economist and best-selling author who explores the impact of climate change on farmland and another by Pat Lynch who approaches land use from a different angle. Those columns appear on pages 25 and 28 respectively. BF

ROBERT IRWIN & DON STONEMAN