Ag census 2016 - a reality check on the current state of the industry

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

There are high expectations for the upcoming Census of Agriculture, which will yield a treasure trove of data for farmers, farm leaders and politicians to ponder. But beware possible distortions about the size and viability of Canada's farm sector

by BARRY WILSON

Coming soon to the mailboxes or email accounts of Ontario farmers – Census of Agriculture forms that the law requires be filled out and returned by May 10. Yet despite this time-consuming intrusion of bureaucracy, there rarely is organized protest from farmers. It happens every five years and in 2011 the response rate was more than 97 per cent nation-wide.

As always, the results of the 2016 census, once they are compiled, analyzed and released, are eagerly anticipated. For governments and politicians, it is a chance to gauge how their agricultural policies are working – or not. For economists and statisticians with an interest in how the food-producing industry fits into the modern Canadian economy, how the industry is evolving, where it is faltering and where it is strong, it offers a treasure trove of data that can be used to analyze, project, predict and pontificate.

For farm leaders, as well as the organizations and farmers they represent, it is a reality check on the current face of the industry. It offers fodder for political arguments, lobby campaigns that target policies or programs that need to be created, strengthened or jettisoned.

And with luck, it can offer farm advocates the proof they need to argue that the food-producing sector is an important, evolving and innovative part of the country and the economy, which deserves respect, good policy and support when needed.

Welcome to the expectations that surround the Statistics Canada Census of Agriculture. Since the first Canadian census in 1871, the federal statistical agency – originally the Department of Agriculture, then the Department and Commerce, then the Dominion Bureau of Statistics and now Statistics Canada – has collected the raw data that has allowed creation of statistical snapshots recording the ongoing history and transformation of the industry.

This year, expectations also are high at Statistics Canada as officials finish the final details before shipping the detailed forms out and then wait for the avalanche of raw data that will follow.

Wayne Smith, Chief Statistician of Canada, told a late January seminar that among many anticipated results, the findings are expected to reveal an increased use of technology and direct marketing, the extent of foreign ownership and the extent to which new younger entrants have joined the business in the past five years.

Of course, the census will show that the number of Canadian "farms" continues to fall, as it has since the high-water mark of the farm population in the 1930s. In 1956, there were 575,000 "census farms" nation-wide and by 2011 just 206,000 with that number widely expected to fall well below 200,000 this year.

This statistic is often the one that receives the most attention with breathless media reports of the disappearing farm population and the decimation of the family while political critics try to score points about government policy depopulating rural Canada.

But there is a problem here. Of all the valuable and vital statistics and analysis that flows from the census data, this one not only draws the most popular attention but also creates the most confusion and misleads the most.

There were not 206,000 farmers in Canada in 2011 trying to, or with a legitimate expectation of making, a significant portion of their income from the farm. It likely was well less than half that.

There is a legitimate debate about where to draw the income or gross revenue line between "commercial" and "hobby" or part-time farms, but the Statistics Canada threshold for defining a farm or farmer is so low it makes the gross number almost meaningless. Anyone can self-identify as a farm operator "if agricultural products produced are intended for sale." That certainly would add many phantom farmers to the total.

The agency says the definition is retained so results can be compared between censuses. That may be valid for statistical purposes, but it creates a distorted picture of the size and viability of Canada's farm sector. BF

Barry Wilson is a member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery specializing in agriculture.