Cattle outlook week ending April 1, 2011

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Ron Plain’s cattle report

It was a great week to be selling cattle. Fed cattle prices are at a record level. The 5-area daily weighted average price for slaughter steers sold through Thursday of this week on a live weight basis was $121.57/cwt, up $7.32 from a week earlier. This breaks the record of $117.89 set three weeks earlier. Steers sold on a dressed weight basis this week averaged $199.03/cwt, $11.52 higher than the week before. This week last year, slaughter steer prices averaged $96.24/cwt live and $155.77/cwt dressed.

On Friday morning the choice boxed beef carcass cutout value was $189.30/cwt, up $3.39 for the week and also a new record high. However, the select carcass cutout was down 54 cents from the previous Friday to $185.11 per hundred pounds of carcass weight. The choice-select spread has been quite small in recent weeks. The jump in choice value this week indicates a boost in demand for quality beef.

The government says that the unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 8.8% in March. The economy added 216 thousand jobs during March. Continued economic growth is needed if cattle and beef prices are to remain high.

This week's cattle slaughter totaled 640,000 head, up 1.3% from the week before and up 1.4% compared to the same week last year.

Steer carcass weights averaged 829 pounds during the week ending March 19. That was unchanged from the week before, but 9 pounds heavier than a year ago.

The record high prices for fed cattle pushed feeder cattle prices higher. Cash bids for feeder cattle around the country this week were mostly steady to $6 higher with a few reports as much as $10 higher. Oklahoma City prices were $1 to $5 higher than the previous week with price ranges for medium and large frame #1 steers: 400-450# $171-$181, 450-500# $159.50-$167.50, 500-550# $155-$164.50, 550-600# $152-$159, 600-650# $147.75-$155, 650-700# $135-$146.75, 700-750# $132.75-$138.25, 750-800# $129-$134, 800-900# $124-$132.75 and 900-1000# $120-$125/cwt.

The April fed cattle futures contract ended the week at $122.075/cwt, up from $118.60 a week ago. The June contracted closed out the week at $121.25/cwt. The August contract settled at $122.60 and October contract closed above $126.00/cwt.

Seasonally, fed cattle prices usually decline from early spring into mid summer. The futures market is predicting steady prices through summer then some increase in the fall.
 

Posted on: 
April 1, 2011

Dr. Ronald L. Plain is D. Howard Doane Professor and is Extension Economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He serves as program leader for extension within the department and has been a faculty member at MU since 1981. He can be reached by e-mail at plainr@missouri.edu His website is: http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr

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