50 Ate Today? Thank a Farmer. Better Farming | January 2025 U.S.-CHINA TRADE WAR 2.0: IMPACT ON AG Soybeans, corn, pork face risks from potential tariffs. By Moe Agostino & Abhinesh Gopal The big wild card for the North American ag economy in 2025 and upcoming years is the (repeat) United States (U.S.) Trump presidency. The North American ag sector is facing severe headwinds on account of possible commodity price erosion due to a looming U.S. Trade War 2.0. At a time of burgeoning global grain and oilseed supplies, especially for soybeans, demand is needed to offset those growing supplies. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected the 2024-2025 U.S. soybean ending stocks at a big 470 million bushels. They are also forecasting a record 2024-2025 Brazilian soybean crop due to favourable conditions thus far. A “Trump Effect,” though, could create wrinkles in the U.S. export program. According to USDA data, tariffs cost U.S. producers $27 billion in exports between 2018 and 2019. In his first term, from 2017 to 2020, he initiated trade wars with many of America’s biggest trading partners, including the “gorilla in the room”, China. U.S. soybean exports fell sharply in 2018- by 79 per cent year-on-year (Y/Y). In his second term, Trump has announced that he will be even tougher on China, instituting tariffs on imports from China of more than 60 per cent. He is also said to be favouring blanket tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent on all American imports irrespective of source country. His recent threat against Mexico is that he will implement a 25 per cent Moe’s Market Minute U.S. soybean exports to China could drop by 52 per cent in the event of a trade war. Mary Loggan photo
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