Better Farming | June July 2024

48 Like Us on Facebook: BetterFarmingON Better Farming | June/July 2024 last year. This is in line with the average at 6.3 million acres but slightly lower than 2019 at 6.415 million acres. Intended Ontario corn acres in 2024 are expected to fall 2.26 per cent to 2.210 million acres, slightly below the five-year average versus 2024, but soybean acres are up 7.7 per cent year-on-year to a new record high near 3.137 million acres as farmers try and save money from high input costs in growing corn. All wheat acres are down 13.53 per cent. The Farms.com Risk Management survey is projecting more corn, soybean, and less wheat acres than Statistics Canada. Although the friendly lower U.S. principal crop acreage figure is bullish for prices, some market participants are concerned of the likelihood that acres reduced in the March report may come back into play during planting time and show up in the USDA June Acreage report, which would not be welcome for prices. Looking at the past 20 years of data, in 15 years, U.S. corn acreage has come in higher in the USDA June Acreage report versus the March acreage intentions. Soybean acreage over the same period has come in higher on nine occasions. However, the USDA may have overestimated last year’s total acreage pie and is simply underestimating this year’s total acreage pie. This year’s expected and looming La Nina weather pattern could have a say in the acreage mix as it can cause excessive dryness and heat. This is a situation that can cut both ways. On the one hand, dry conditions can accelerate corn seeding and that can add acreage, whereas excessive dryness could also postpone planting as farmers wait for moisture. Soil moisture has been an early issue for this year’s cropping season, especially in Iowa – which is the No. 1 U.S. corn and No. 2 soybean growing state – and in states like Missouri and Nebraska that remain extremely dry. Portions of Western Canada, like southwestern Manitoba, northern Saskatchewan, and northern Alberta, have had less than 85 per cent of normal precipitation in the last six months. Inputs (except seed) and fuel continue to be pricey in 2024. The Israel-Hamas-Iran war in the Middle East has been “fueling” high crude oil and fuel prices and there has been no respite in 2024. As of early-April, fertilizer prices had climbed by 17 per cent since bottoming by around late August of 2023. For 2024, 90 million U.S. corn acres gives farmers a chance for higher prices during late-spring/early-summer as final production is not determined by acres but rather by yields. BF BOURBONNAIS EQUIPMENT Sarsfield • 613-835-2623 G.J.’S HARVEST CENTRE INC. Burgessville • 519-424-9374 Milverton • 519-603-8374 HAWLEY’S GARAGE Belleville • 613-969-5525 J&H SALES & SERVICE Chesley • 519-363-3510 J&J EQUIPMENT REPAIR INC Powassan • 705-724-6565 M&P FARM EQUIPMENT Almonte • 613-253-4957 McCABE TRACTOR SALES Lindsay • 705-799-2868 PROFOTA’S FARM EQUIPMENT Chatham • 519-354-5100 YURKE SALES & SERVICE Comber • 519-687-2209 MOE AGOSTINO & ABHINESH GOPAL Maurizio (“Moe”) is chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management and Abhinesh is head of commodity research. Moe’s Market Minute

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