Better Farming | June July 2024

46 Follow us on @BetterFarmingON Better Farming | June/July 2024 North American farmers’ planting decisions this year are not likely to have been easy. Corn futures dipped briefly below United States (U.S.) $4 per bushel and soybean prices almost touched $11 per bushel as of late-February. Wheat futures have been in a perennial downtrend since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in early 2022. Canola futures broke below $600 per tonne during late-February, which was its lowest since late-2020. There has been no love from the speculative funds for ag commodities as they have sold due to larger global supplies. The lower prices and margins do not instill a lot of confidence or encouragement for crop producers, but prices seem to have bottomed as of late-February and were consolidating. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March Prospective Plantings report showed a sizable shrinkage of total U.S. principal crop acreage versus 2023 and versus expectations of 313.3 million acres, which is a drop of 6.3 million acres year-onyear. Corn acreage at 90 million acres came 1.7 million acres below trade expectations and last year’s 94.6 million, and almost every major corn-producing U.S. state showed year-on-year reductions. On the other hand, soybean acreage, as expected, came in higher yearon-year at 86.51 million acres (last year’s acreage was 83.6 million). U.S. wheat acreage is expected to be lower than last year. U.S. all wheat planted area for 2024 is estimated at 47.5 million acres, down four per cent from 2023. U.S. farmers intend to plant more cotton acres year-on-year in 2024 at 10.407 million, but not as much as many market analysts were expecting. Joe Janzen of the University of Illinois’s farmdoc daily said that U.S. principal crop acreage has dropped due to lower grain prices since the spring/summer of last year, long-term drought in the Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas) that has led to poor planting conditions, higher Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres in recent years, and acreage reduction due to other uses like solar farms. According to Statistics Canada’s spring seeding intentions reports, total 2024 Canadian principal area seeded at 78.2 million acres compares to last year’s record of 78.4 million. Estimated summer fallow acres are expected to drop to a record low of 1.209 million. Statistics Canada said that 2024 Canadian canola acreage is expected to decrease 3.1 per cent from 2023 to 21.4 million acres in 2024, roughly in line with the five-year average. The decline in expected seeded area may have been driven by lower prices for canola, in addition to other concerns, including soil moisture in Western Canada. Canadian farmers anticipate planting 27 million acres of wheat, edging up +0.1 per cent year-on-year. Area seeded to winter wheat is expected to decline 3.6 per cent to 1.5 million acres. Western Canadian spring wheat area is projected to drop by 240,000 acres to 19.235 million, which is down by -1.2 per cent versus 2023 when the highest acres were seeded since 2001, +6.6 per cent versus the five-year average. A 2024 Farms.com Risk Management survey is projecting that Ontario farmers intend to plant 6.380 million acres of corn, soybeans, and all wheat combined this year, slightly lower than PRINCIPAL CROP ACREAGE REVIEW Farmers are planting 6.3 million acres of corn, soybeans, & wheat in 2024. By Moe Agostino & Abhinesh Gopal Moe’s Market Minute All North American wheat acres are down 13.53 per cent. Leslie Stewart photo

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