60 Like Us on Facebook: BetterFarmingON Better Farming | November 2023 CABEF is a registered charity (#828593731RR0001). For more information on all registered charities in Canada under the Income Tax Act, please visit Canada Revenue Agency www.cra-arc.gc.ca/charities. Contact CABEF today to learn how you can become a “Champion of CABEF” at info@cabef.org Congratulations to this year’s CABEF scholarship recipients. @CABEFscholarship cabef.org Meet the next generation of Canadian agri-food leaders These exceptional students are the winners of the 2023 CABEF Scholarships. We are proud to support each of them with $2,500 for their ag-related post-secondary education. Help us empower more students to pursue diverse careers in agri-food. Strengthen the future of Canadian agriculture and food by investing in the cream of the crop. Become a Champion of CABEF and directly support a scholarship for a Canadian student. Sarah MacDonald Vanderhoof, BC Erin Hughes Longview, AB Wyatt Pavloff Perdue, SK Milan Lukes Winnipeg, MB Kyla Lewis Dorchester, ON Matthew Bishop Round Hill, NS Moe’s Market Minute is glut of Russian wheat arriving onto the global export market undercut global prices and Russia took up its position as a market maker. In 2023-2024, Russian wheat exports are expected to capture 22.5 per cent of the global export market versus about 16 per cent during the prior marketing year. is situation worked as a double-edged sword since the bigger market share was welcome but the lowest global wheat prices in at least three years hurt Russia’s farmer incomes and the country’s expectations of earning more through bigger exports. Russia’s undercutting of global wheat prices is happening at a time when global wheat stocks have fallen. e global wheat stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5 per cent for 2023-2024 and this compares to 15.1 per cent in 20222023. e 2023-2024 ratio is the second lowest on record, behind 13.1 per cent from 2007-2008. is surprised the market in September when the stocks data was released and provided a short-term boost to wheat futures. e 2023-2024 wheat crop estimates of major exporting countries like Canada, the European Union, Australia, Argentina, and the United Kingdom were reduced by USDA in the September crop report. e weakness in wheat can be attributed to Russia’s dominance in world export markets as it continues to dump cheap wheat on to the world market, undercutting its competition. Add to that Ukraine’s ability to export wheat even without the Black Sea corridor agreement, and the fact that U.S. HRW wheat sales are running nearly 50 per cent below last year, which has caused the path of least resistance for wheat futures to be lower. Looking into 2024, the dark clouds may be clearing as it’s been very dry and not the ideal start (like it had during the past two years) that the 2024 wheat Russian growing season was hoping for. With low global wheat ending stocks (the tightest in eight years), the global price of wheat is likely lower than the underlying value of the global commodity. To put a pause on the lower earnings from their wheat exports, Russia is rumoured to try and set a wheat price oor and/or limit its exports. If the 2024 Russia wheat crop dries up, global wheat prices will have no other option but to go higher as managed money funds remain too short. A short 2023 corn crop with lower yields and higher prices could also spark a rally in wheat prices in the spring of 2024. BF MOE AGOSTINO & ABHINESH GOPAL Maurizio (“Moe”) is chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management and Abhinesh is head of commodity research.
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