38 The Business of Canadian Hog Farming Better Pork | December 2023 ber to February. Hog producers braved up to the reality of thin bottom lines over the last many months and worked hard on herd productivity and stronger biosecurity efforts, which could result in more supplies. As has been the story throughout 2023, strong U.S. pork exports continue to be the saving grace for the industry, and that feature has prevailed in a year when China has not been the biggest buyer. Another key demand feature this year has been broad-based customer growth at a time when the biggest global pork exporter, the European Union (E.U.), has been unable to generate big surpluses to export. The biggest buyer of U.S. pork this year has been neighbouring Mexico, but exports are only 25 to 30 per cent of the demand pie and the softer U.S. domestic demand represents the bigger and more important piece of the pie at 70 to 75 per cent. According to USDA’s October ‘The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’ livestock update, the 2024 U.S. pork production estimate at 27.895 billion pounds is higher Y/Y by 2.22 per cent. The 2023 pork production estimate at 27.289 billion pounds is 1.09 per cent higher Y/Y. The 2024 U.S. pork exports projection at 6.95 billion pounds is 2.8 per cent higher Y/Y and the 2023 pork exports estimate at 6.761 billion pounds is 6.6 per cent higher Y/Y. USDA’s average U.S. hog farm price projections for 2024 was $61 per hundredweight, which is $1.3 higher Y/Y, but the projection for 2023 at $59.7 is $11.51 lower versus the prior year. It seems that the U.S. hog industry began expanding in the spring of last year and the market is unlikely to be short on supply any time soon. Hence U.S. pork supplies are unlikely to fall as fast as some market projections expected. U.S. pork export demand, however, should remain strong with competitive prices. The U.S. beef cow herd is the smallest since 1962 as liquidation continues due to drought and high feed costs. This drove producers to send animals to slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding. U.S. beef exports hit $10 billion for the first time in 2021 and hit a new record high in 2022, but exports are down by 7.9 per cent in 2023 due to record high prices and less available supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. domestic beef demand hit an all-time high in 2021 at 30 billion pounds and has since remained buoyant. As long as drought continues to impact the herd, a bull market in cattle is still in the cards for the next year or two. BP London Swine Conference LSC March 5 & 6 at the Doubletree by Hilton London, ON, https://www.londonswineconference.ca Scan for more details program online now registration opens January 2 NEWPork Industry Banquet March 5 MOE AGOSTINO & ABHINESH GOPAL Maurizio (“Moe”) is chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management and Abhinesh is head of commodity research. Moe’s Market Minute
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