54 Follow us on @PrairieFarming Better Farming | September 2024 Moe’s Market Minute WEATHER SCARE OVER BEFORE IT STARTED Excessive heat & dryness actually helped the developing crop. By Moe Agostino & Abhinesh Gopal Historically during the North American growing season, weather premiums get baked into the future prices as the markets get spooked by the possible summer weather scare. And over the last many years, we have seen a “pop” in grain and oilseed futures as traders buy ag commodities during the spring-summer to try to position themselves ahead of any possible dry-hot weather pattern during the peak summer. The dry and hot conditions during a year need not be all-encompassing. Like we’ve seen in past years in the United States’ Midwest (U.S. Midwest), in Ontario, and in Western Canada, it can be a story of two halves, with either the western or eastern half seeing extremely drier-and-hotterthan-normal weather conditions while the other half sees conducive cropping weather. We started off 2024 with weather concerns around the world, particularly in South America. That was then followed by frost and dry conditions in the Black Sea Region and Russia’s wheat crop was affected. The North American planting season was less than ideal due to excessive moisture, and China had its own crop stress with dry-hot conditions. But in the end, it was all noise, and the speculative investment funds kept selling ag commodities with a “rain makes grain” attitude. The one thing that this year has been is wet. 2024 has been challenging for North American farmers due to floods in the United States’ north and central growing regions, too much moisture in Manitoba and Ontario, hail in Nebraska, and a derecho in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. We may have lost acres due to flooded and drowned-out fields, but higher average yields are likely to more than offset that shortfall. Ontario had a very wet spring that kept fields soggy and delayed planting for large parts that have heavy clay soils in the province. Farmers, however, made the most of the dry planting window they had and planted aggressively into extended crop insurance dates. Western Canada began the year with 81 per cent of its agricultural land being under drought conditions, but a very wet spring-summer reduced that to just 32 per cent in drought at the end of June. Much of the region received near- to above-normal precipitation. This contrasted with the prior Higher average yields are likely to offset lost acres from flooded fields. Farm & Food Care photo
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTc0MDI3