24 The Business of Prairie Agriculture Better Farming | February 2024 more evenly,” Jensen says. There may even be producers who choose against seeding some acres if dryness persists, and instead ready themselves to grow improved crops in 2025, he says. But well-timed, ample precipitation in the spring would change everything. “We can go from a drought to a more normal growing season with just some timely early spring precipitation over a week time frame in April or early May,” Jensen says. Cattle Ongoing dryness also affects livestock, and represents something of a doubleedged sword for the cattle sector. A milder winter with below-normal precipitation – hallmarks of a strong El Niño in Canada – would reduce feed demand, but leave the ground parched. When it comes to feed demand, the colder it gets, the more that cattle need to consume: Alberta’s Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation recommends producers increase the grain they feed their animals by 2.2 lbs. for every 5 C below -20 C. That’s because the metabolic rates of cattle will rise to increase heat production to help maintain their body temperature. Rancher and Cows in Control owner Ryan Copithorne says dry winters can further help save on feed costs if producers can turn out their cattle on grass that wasn’t grazed in the fall. “A cow might eat 20 to 30 pounds of feed on banked grass on warm winter days versus over 40 pounds on cold winter days and full feed,” Copithorne says. While positive in the face of feed supply tightness, this practice puts strain on grass supplies for the spring and summer, Copithorne explains. “Brown winters are hellish on water table and slough levels,” he adds. “Surface water is going to be an issue going forward. “It will take a lot of moisture to top up our dry slough beds and drained water tables.” Manitoba The Keystone province was spared the extreme drought which parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan experienced in 2023. Manitoba Agriculture’s final crop report last October described variable rainfall throughout the growing season and improved yields in regions that experienced timely rains. Even with an El Niño winter, agronomist Jason Voogt, owner of Field 2 Field Agronomy, says farmers would be best off sticking to their normal rotational crop plans because there can still be a lot of uncertainty and regional differences. If, however, growers were to focus on more drought-resistant crops, he would expect them to consider cereals like wheat, oats, and barley, pulse like peas, and oilseed crops like sunflowers. What Voogt doesn’t anticipate is summer fallow. “It’s very uncommon for southern Manitoba to experience prolonged drought conditions (and then) to implement summer fallow as a strategy to conserve or build up moisture,” he says. Instead, most growers are likely to respond to any ongoing dry conditions during the fall by not tilling fields to allow for the best snow trap possible. They may also end up changing their spring planting dates. “If field conditions are fit, growers El Niño Shawn Cabak photo El Niño is a double-edged sword for cattle producers: Cattle don't need to eat as much over a mild winter, but the ground will be parched.
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