22 Follow us on Twitter: @PrairieFarming Better Farming | February 2024 Jodie Aldred photo Anne Kirk, Manitoba Agriculture photo El Niño El Niño’s threat of below-normal precipitation is of particular concern for farmers in already dry Prairie regions, but far less so to crop growers in Ontario. Going into December, 97 per cent of the Canadian Prairies were abnormally dry or in moderate to exceptional drought, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Drought Monitor. Tom Jensen, a soil scientist and agronomist with Jensen AgGro, says farmers in the dryland and irrigated portions of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta have expressed their anxiety about dry conditions persisting into 2024’s growing season. Dryland and irrigated regions El Niño could force dry conditions to persist or worsen, prompting farmers in unirrigated areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta to eye more drought-tolerant crops. Inadequate winter snowpack and no timely early spring rains could result in producers seeding less canola, and devoting more acres to wheat, field peas, and lentils, Jensen says. He adds that ongoing dryness might convince some farmers to consider summer fallowing – a practice that had almost disappeared over the last 30 years – just for the sake of moisture conservation. “It is economically better to grow a modest crop once every two years than have two years in a row of crop failures,” Jensen says. Meanwhile, irrigated portions of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are heading for water shortages unless those areas receive adequate snow pack in the eastern slope mountains during winter and/or spring, he says. “There is potential for water ration- ing to occur, and some potato and sugar beet farmers may end up paying other farmers for water,” Jensen says. “That is, shifting water rights over to the high-value and high-water-demanding potato and sugar beet crops from cereal or hay crops.” Planting dates Should this winter’s anticipated strong El Niño drop below-average snow totals, farmers could end up altering their spring planting times. Some farmers might plant at their normal times or earlier, as dry conditions would be conducive to getting on fields sooner. However, there may be a risk of uneven growth stages in those fields. “The earlier crop stage will germinate and emerge in the lower areas where there is just enough soil moisture. Then, after some spring rains, the rest of the field will germinate and emerge, resulting in a field with two different stage crops,” Jensen says. This not only complicates herbicide and fungicide applications, but also harvest operations. Farmers also have the option of delaying planting until precipitation finally arrives. “This will shorten the growing season for planted crops, but the crops will germinate and emerge quickly and EL NIÑO UPSETTING GROWERS’ PLANS ACROSS THE COUNTRY CROSS-CANADA WEATHER OUTLOOK By RICHARD KAMCHEN
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